Aron
Dønnum
RMNorway · FC Toulouse
Player dossierLigue 1
AronDønnum
RMRight MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- FC Toulouse
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- Norway
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Ligue 1Reading the valuation
The market values Dønnum at €5M. Model A, which never saw Dønnum during training, estimates €9M: the market value is 45% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.80. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 60
- Minutes
- 5,123
- Goals
- 6
- Assists
- 7
- Started
- 59/60
- Min / app
- 85
- Cards
- 14Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dønnum…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
98% this player69% midfielder median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Dec 2016
- Peak
- €5M
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €5M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 21
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €5M, FC Toulouse. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-18 | €50k | Vålerenga Fotball Elite |
| 2017-12-23 | €50k | Vålerenga Fotball Elite |
| 2018-12-30 | €100k | Vålerenga Fotball Elite |
| 2019-09-15 | €500k | Vålerenga Fotball Elite |
| 2019-12-29 | €500k | Vålerenga Fotball Elite |
| 2020-04-08 | €450k | Vålerenga Fotball Elite |
| 2020-07-25 | €600k | Vålerenga Fotball Elite |
| 2020-12-31 | €800k | Vålerenga Fotball Elite |
| 2021-07-26 | €1.5M | Standard Liège |
| 2022-01-06 | €2M | Standard Liège |
| 2022-04-12 | €1.2M | Vålerenga Fotball Elite |
| 2022-11-04 | €1.8M | Standard Liège |
| 2023-03-22 | €2.5M | Standard Liège |
| 2023-06-09 | €3M | Standard Liège |
| 2023-10-16 | €4M | FC Toulouse |
| 2023-12-18 | €3.5M | FC Toulouse |
| 2024-06-03 | €3.5M | FC Toulouse |
| 2024-12-10 | €4M | FC Toulouse |
| 2025-06-03 | €4M | FC Toulouse |
| 2025-12-15 | €5M | FC Toulouse |
| 2026-06-01 | €5M | FC Toulouse |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.590
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 45% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Dønnum appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SaïdSSRC Lens · Ligue 1€5M
- ThauvinRWRC Lens · Ligue 1€5M
- NicolaisenCBFC Toulouse · Ligue 1€5M
- LopezDMParis FC · Ligue 1€5M
- KokeCMAtlético de Madrid · midfielders€5M
- VanakenAMClub Brugge KV · midfielders€5M
- NørgaardDMArsenal FC · midfielders€5M
- Ward-ProwseCMBurnley FC · midfielders€5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).