FairValue

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Wesley

Saïd

SSFrance · RC Lens

№ 182916Established €6.2M −0.21

Player dossierLigue 1

WesleySaïd

SSSecond StrikerAttack

Club
RC Lens
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
France
Age
31
Height
171 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Saïd at €5M. Model A, which never saw Saïd during training, estimates €6.2M: the market value is 19% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.21A €6.2M▲ +0.48B €3.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
55
Minutes
3,053
Goals
16
Assists
2
Started
39/55
Min / app
56
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Saïd…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €6.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Wesley Saïd's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 85th, Assists per 90 18th, Minutes, two years 67th, Starts 70th, Minutes, last 365 days 73rd, European club minutes 63rd85thGoals18thAssists67thMinutes70thStarts73rdRecent63rdEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.47 this player0.26 attacker median85th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Jul 2013
Peak
€8M
Sept 2019
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
36
6 club changes
Jun 2026€5MRC LensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, RC Lens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-07-22€250kStade Rennais FC
2013-09-13€400kStade Rennais FC
2014-01-14€500kStade Rennais FC
2014-08-19€500kStade Rennais FC
2014-11-20€600kStade Lavallois
2015-01-14€800kStade Lavallois
2015-06-06€1MStade Lavallois
2016-02-04€1MDijon FCO
2016-07-13€1MStade Rennais FC
2016-11-01€1.5MStade Rennais FC
2017-01-16€1.5MStade Rennais FC
2017-06-01€1.5MStade Rennais FC
2018-01-24€3MDijon FCO
2018-03-20€6MDijon FCO
2018-06-04€6MDijon FCO
2018-12-17€6MDijon FCO
2019-06-03€6MDijon FCO
2019-09-17€7.5MFC Toulouse
2019-09-27€8MFC Toulouse
2019-12-19€6.5MFC Toulouse
2020-03-13€5MFC Toulouse
2020-04-08€4MFC Toulouse
2020-11-11€2.5MFC Toulouse
2021-06-25€1.5MFC Toulouse
2021-12-16€2.5MRC Lens
2022-05-30€2.5MRC Lens
2022-11-02€2.5MRC Lens
2023-06-27€2MRC Lens
2023-12-18€3MRC Lens
2024-03-19€4MRC Lens
2024-06-03€4MRC Lens
2024-12-10€3.5MRC Lens
2025-06-03€3MRC Lens
2025-12-15€4MRC Lens
2026-03-27€6MRC Lens
2026-06-01€5MRC Lens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.209

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 45% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Saïd appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).