FairValue

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Rodrigo

Becão

CBBrazil · Kasimpasa

№ 410158Established €844k +0.86

Player dossierSüper Lig

RodrigoBecão

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Kasimpasa
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Brazil
Age
30
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Becão at €2M. Model A, which never saw Becão during training, estimates €844k: the market value is 137% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.86A €844k▼ −0.26B €2.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
2,071
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
23/30
Min / app
69
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Becão…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €844k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Rodrigo Becão's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 59th, Assists per 90 73rd, Minutes, two years 35th, Starts 38th, Minutes, last 365 days 32nd, European club minutes 76th59thGoals73rdAssists35thMinutes38thStarts32ndRecent76thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

14% this player0% defender median76th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2015
Peak
€11M
Sept 2023
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
30
5 club changes
May 2026€2MKasimpasaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, Kasimpasa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-12-15€50kUnknown
2016-07-23€50kUnknown
2017-12-07€200kEsporte Clube Bahia
2018-05-23€400kEsporte Clube Bahia
2018-08-31€1MCSKA Moscow
2018-10-15€2.5MCSKA Moscow
2018-12-20€6.5MCSKA Moscow
2019-06-14€7MCSKA Moscow
2019-12-12€7MUdinese Calcio
2020-03-03€6MUdinese Calcio
2020-04-08€4.8MUdinese Calcio
2020-08-25€4.5MUdinese Calcio
2020-12-29€5MUdinese Calcio
2021-06-03€5MUdinese Calcio
2021-12-28€5MUdinese Calcio
2022-06-07€6MUdinese Calcio
2022-11-11€10MUdinese Calcio
2023-06-15€10MUdinese Calcio
2023-09-27€11MFenerbahce
2023-12-21€10MFenerbahce
2024-03-15€9MFenerbahce
2024-05-31€8MFenerbahce
2024-10-04€8MFenerbahce
2024-12-23€8MFenerbahce
2025-03-20€6.5MFenerbahce
2025-06-18€5.5MFenerbahce
2025-10-01€4.5MFenerbahce
2025-12-17€3MFenerbahce
2026-03-05€2.5MKasimpasa
2026-05-21€2MKasimpasa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.863

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 61% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Becão appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).