FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Kevin

Chamorro

GKCosta Rica · Rio Ave FC

№ 378521Emerging €385k −0.25

Player dossierLiga Portugal

KevinChamorro

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Rio Ave FC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Costa Rica
Age
26
Height
187 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Chamorro at €300k. Model A, which never saw Chamorro during training, estimates €385k: the market value is 22% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €546k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.25A €385k▼ −0.60B €546k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
7
Minutes
630
Started
7/7
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chamorro…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €385k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Kevin Chamorro's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 8th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 11th, European club minutes 32nd8thMinutes62ndStarts11thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Oct 2018
Peak
€375k
Jun 2024
Model target
€300k
May 2026
Valuations
17
4 club changes
May 2026€300kRio Ave FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €300k, Rio Ave FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-10-29€75kAD Carmelita
2018-12-26€100kAD Carmelita
2019-06-02€125kAD Carmelita
2019-12-29€100kAD San Carlos
2020-07-13€100kAD San Carlos
2020-12-26€200kAD San Carlos
2021-06-18€250kAD San Carlos
2021-12-23€200kDeportivo Saprissa
2022-07-20€175kDeportivo Saprissa
2022-12-07€225kDeportivo Saprissa
2023-06-05€300kDeportivo Saprissa
2024-03-14€350kDeportivo Saprissa
2024-06-14€375kDeportivo Saprissa
2024-12-19€300kGD Estoril Praia
2025-05-30€300kGD Estoril Praia
2025-12-18€300kRio Ave FC
2026-05-28€300kRio Ave FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.250

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 8% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Chamorro appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).