FairValue

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Andre

Green

LWEngland · Avs Futebol

№ 309841Emerging €433k −0.37

Player dossierLiga Portugal

AndreGreen

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Avs Futebol
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
England
Age
27
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Green at €300k. Model A, which never saw Green during training, estimates €433k: the market value is 31% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.44. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €593k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.37A €433k▼ −0.68B €593k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
17
Minutes
980
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
13/17
Min / app
58
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Green…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €433k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Andre Green's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 28th, Minutes, two years 18th, Starts 78th, Minutes, last 365 days 36th, European club minutes 28th3rdGoals28thAssists18thMinutes78thStarts36thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

76% this player59% attacker median78th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Sept 2016
Peak
€2M
Jun 2019
Model target
€300k
May 2026
Valuations
20
7 club changes
May 2026€300kAvs FutebolValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €300k, Avs Futebol. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-09-01€500kAston Villa
2017-02-27€500kAston Villa
2017-09-18€1MAston Villa
2018-02-27€1MAston Villa
2019-06-28€2MAston Villa
2020-02-27€2MCharlton Athletic
2020-04-08€1.8MCharlton Athletic
2020-11-10€1.2MWithout Club
2021-03-10€1MSheffield Wednesday
2021-06-30€800kSheffield Wednesday
2021-12-26€900kSlovan Bratislava
2022-06-23€800kSlovan Bratislava
2022-12-16€750kSlovan Bratislava
2023-06-21€800kSlovan Bratislava
2023-12-21€500kRotherham United
2024-05-24€500kRotherham United
2024-12-27€400kRotherham United
2025-06-18€400kRotherham United
2025-12-12€400kPanserraikos
2026-05-28€300kAvs Futebol

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.368

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 8% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 8% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Green appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).