FairValue

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Frederico

Venâncio

CBPortugal · CD Santa Clara

№ 169681Emerging €441k −0.38

Player dossierLiga Portugal

FredericoVenâncio

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
CD Santa Clara
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
33
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Venâncio at €300k. Model A, which never saw Venâncio during training, estimates €441k: the market value is 32% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.38A €441k▼ −1.47B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
3,894
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
45/53
Min / app
73
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Venâncio…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €441k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Frederico Venâncio's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 43rd, Assists per 90 55th, Minutes, two years 68th, Starts 55th, Minutes, last 365 days 64th, European club minutes 68th43rdGoals55thAssists68thMinutes55thStarts64thRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

7% this player0% defender median68th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Apr 2013
Peak
€2M
Jul 2016
Model target
€300k
May 2026
Valuations
29
4 club changes
May 2026€300kCD Santa ClaraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €300k, CD Santa Clara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-04-03€100kVitória Setúbal FC
2013-07-02€500kVitória Setúbal FC
2014-08-04€1MVitória Setúbal FC
2015-02-17€1.2MVitória Setúbal FC
2015-07-01€1.5MVitória Setúbal FC
2016-02-24€1.8MVitória Setúbal FC
2016-07-29€2MVitória Setúbal FC
2017-02-22€2MVitória Setúbal FC
2017-06-26€2MVitória Setúbal FC
2018-11-01€2MVitória Guimarães SC
2019-01-11€1.5MVitória Guimarães SC
2019-06-07€1MVitória Guimarães SC
2019-12-30€1MVitória Guimarães SC
2020-04-08€800kVitória Guimarães SC
2020-08-17€1.5MVitória Guimarães SC
2020-10-08€1.5MCD Lugo
2020-11-23€1MCD Lugo
2021-01-08€1MCD Lugo
2021-06-24€800kCD Lugo
2021-12-27€800kSD Eibar
2022-06-29€800kSD Eibar
2022-12-29€800kSD Eibar
2023-06-14€800kSD Eibar
2023-12-20€800kSD Eibar
2024-06-24€700kSD Eibar
2024-12-19€700kCD Santa Clara
2025-05-30€600kCD Santa Clara
2025-12-18€500kCD Santa Clara
2026-05-28€300kCD Santa Clara

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.384

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 8% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 9% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Venâncio appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).