Timon
Weiner
GKGermany · Holstein Kiel
Player dossierBundesliga
TimonWeiner
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Holstein Kiel
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Both
- Valued
- 16 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Weiner at €500k. Model A, which never saw Weiner during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 77% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×4.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €773k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 27
- Minutes
- 2,430
- Started
- 27/27
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Weiner…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Jul 2018
- Peak
- €1.5M
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €500k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 18
- 2 club changes
Dec 2025: €500k, Holstein Kiel. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-07-03 | €100k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2019-01-08 | €100k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2019-06-12 | €125k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2019-12-13 | €125k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2020-07-17 | €125k | 1.FC Magdeburg |
| 2021-01-20 | €125k | 1.FC Magdeburg |
| 2021-06-14 | €100k | 1.FC Magdeburg |
| 2021-12-15 | €100k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2022-06-16 | €100k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2022-11-30 | €100k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2023-06-28 | €100k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2023-10-20 | €500k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2023-12-15 | €800k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2024-06-06 | €1.5M | Holstein Kiel |
| 2024-12-20 | €1.5M | Holstein Kiel |
| 2025-06-05 | €1M | Holstein Kiel |
| 2025-10-09 | €500k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2025-12-16 | €500k | Holstein Kiel |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −1.486
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 2% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 27% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Weiner appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- HöflerDMSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€500k
- RießGK1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga€500k
- JohanssonCBHolstein Kiel · Bundesliga€450k
- JungCBSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€600k
- GünokGKFenerbahce · goalkeepers€500k
- SteeleGKBrighton & Hove Albion · goalkeepers€500k
- DúbravkaGKBurnley FC · goalkeepers€500k
- SilvestriGKUS Cremonese · goalkeepers€500k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).