FairValue

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Portrait of Martin Dúbravka

Martin

Dúbravka

GKSlovakia · Burnley FC

№ 74960Emerging €656k −0.27

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MartinDúbravka

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Burnley FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Slovakia
Age
37
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dúbravka at €500k. Model A, which never saw Dúbravka during training, estimates €656k: the market value is 24% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €149k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.27A €656k▲ +1.21B €149k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
4,260
Started
47/47
Min / app
91
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dúbravka…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €656k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Martin Dúbravka's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 83rd, European club minutes 32nd69thMinutes62ndStarts83rdRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,150 this player1,560 goalkeeper median83rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Mar 2010
Peak
€7.5M
Jul 2020
Model target
€500k
Jun 2026
Valuations
39
7 club changes
Jun 2026€500kBurnley FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €500k, Burnley FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-03-28€200kMSK Zilina
2011-02-03€400kMSK Zilina
2011-06-15€500kMSK Zilina
2012-01-23€425kMSK Zilina
2012-06-17€325kMSK Zilina
2012-12-07€400kMSK Zilina
2013-06-11€400kMSK Zilina
2014-01-02€300kMSK Zilina
2014-08-31€400kEsbjerg fB
2015-02-06€400kEsbjerg fB
2015-09-02€350kEsbjerg fB
2016-01-21€300kEsbjerg fB
2016-08-03€300kFC Slovan Liberec
2016-10-16€450kFC Slovan Liberec
2016-12-19€450kFC Slovan Liberec
2017-06-10€600kFC Slovan Liberec
2017-10-07€800kAC Sparta Prague
2017-12-21€900kAC Sparta Prague
2018-03-23€3MNewcastle United
2018-05-28€4MNewcastle United
2018-12-19€5MNewcastle United
2019-06-13€7MNewcastle United
2019-12-10€7MNewcastle United
2020-04-08€5.5MNewcastle United
2020-07-30€7.5MNewcastle United
2020-10-13€7.5MNewcastle United
2021-03-18€6MNewcastle United
2021-05-31€5MNewcastle United
2021-12-23€5MNewcastle United
2022-06-15€4MNewcastle United
2022-11-03€4MManchester United
2023-03-16€2.5MNewcastle United
2023-06-20€1.5MNewcastle United
2023-12-19€1MNewcastle United
2024-05-27€1MNewcastle United
2024-12-16€1MNewcastle United
2025-05-30€1MNewcastle United
2025-12-09€750kBurnley FC
2026-06-03€500kBurnley FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.271

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 3% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 27% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dúbravka appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).