FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Carl

Johansson

CBSweden · Holstein Kiel

№ 225043Emerging €830k −0.61

Player dossierBundesliga

CarlJohansson

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Holstein Kiel
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Sweden
Age
31
Height
194 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
16 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Johansson at €450k. Model A, which never saw Johansson during training, estimates €830k: the market value is 46% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.84. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €661k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.61A €830k▼ −0.38B €661k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
10
Minutes
568
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
7/10
Min / app
57
Cards
0Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Johansson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €450kModel A €830k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Carl Johansson's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 2nd, Starts 27th, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists2ndMinutes27thStarts6thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jun 2014
Peak
€1.2M
Dec 2022
Model target
€450k
Dec 2025
Valuations
25
4 club changes
Dec 2025€450kHolstein KielValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €450k, Holstein Kiel. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-06-30€75kHelsingborgs IF
2015-04-11€150kHelsingborgs IF
2015-06-14€200kHelsingborgs IF
2015-11-29€400kHelsingborgs IF
2016-06-17€400kHelsingborgs IF
2016-12-11€200kHelsingborgs IF
2017-07-14€150kHelsingborgs IF
2017-11-20€150kHelsingborgs IF
2019-01-16€100kFalkenbergs FF
2019-06-28€300kFalkenbergs FF
2019-11-20€300kFalkenbergs FF
2020-08-05€400kFalkenbergs FF
2020-12-10€400kFalkenbergs FF
2021-06-09€400kIFK Göteborg
2021-09-17€600kIFK Göteborg
2021-12-17€700kIFK Göteborg
2022-06-24€900kIFK Göteborg
2022-09-02€1MIFK Göteborg
2022-12-14€1.2MIFK Göteborg
2023-06-26€800kRanders FC
2023-12-15€700kHolstein Kiel
2024-06-06€700kHolstein Kiel
2024-12-20€700kHolstein Kiel
2025-06-05€500kHolstein Kiel
2025-12-16€450kHolstein Kiel

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.612

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 2% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 17% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Johansson appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).