FairValue

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Isaac

Mbenza

RWBelgium · Royal Charleroi SC

№ 260806Emerging €535k −0.43

Player dossierPro League

IsaacMbenza

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Royal Charleroi SC
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
30
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mbenza at €350k. Model A, which never saw Mbenza during training, estimates €535k: the market value is 35% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €759k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.43A €535k▼ −0.77B €759k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
34
Minutes
1,163
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
11/34
Min / app
34
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mbenza…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €350kModel A €535k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Isaac Mbenza's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 23rd, Minutes, two years 24th, Starts 13th, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 64th44thGoals23rdAssists24thMinutes13thStarts6thRecent64thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

5% this player0% attacker median64th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Sept 2015
Peak
€7M
Oct 2019
Model target
€350k
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
7 club changes
Jun 2026€350kRoyal Charleroi SCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €350k, Royal Charleroi SC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-09-06€400kValenciennes FC
2016-02-04€400kValenciennes FC
2016-07-13€800kValenciennes FC
2017-01-21€1.2MStandard Liège
2017-06-01€1.5MMontpellier HSC
2018-01-24€2.5MMontpellier HSC
2018-06-04€3.5MMontpellier HSC
2018-12-19€3.5MHuddersfield Town
2019-06-13€5MHuddersfield Town
2019-10-17€7MHuddersfield Town
2020-04-08€5.5MAmiens SC
2020-10-15€5MHuddersfield Town
2020-12-22€6MHuddersfield Town
2021-03-10€5MHuddersfield Town
2021-06-30€5MHuddersfield Town
2022-01-10€4MQatar SC
2022-04-12€3MRoyal Charleroi SC
2022-05-26€2.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2022-11-04€2.2MRoyal Charleroi SC
2023-06-09€2.2MRoyal Charleroi SC
2023-12-19€2MRoyal Charleroi SC
2024-03-22€1.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2024-06-04€1.2MRoyal Charleroi SC
2024-12-11€1MRoyal Charleroi SC
2025-06-12€800kRoyal Charleroi SC
2025-12-10€500kRoyal Charleroi SC
2026-06-04€350kRoyal Charleroi SC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.425

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 5% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 10% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mbenza appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).