ÁngeloSagal

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club: AE Larisa
League: Super League
Nationality: Chile
Age: 33
Height: 182 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sagal at €350k. Model A, which never saw Sagal during training, estimates €232k: the market value is 51% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.51. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €294k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 22
Minutes: 1,358
Goals: 5
Assists: 0
Started: 15/22
Min / app: 62
Cards: 5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sagal…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

68% this player59% attacker median65th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €500k; Jan 2016
Peak: €2.3M; Apr 2018
Model target: €350k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 27; 7 club changes

Jun 2026€350kAE LarisaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €350k, AE Larisa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2016-01-11	€500k	Huachipato FC
2017-07-31	€1.5M	CF Pachuca
2018-04-10	€2.3M	CF Pachuca
2018-08-23	€2.3M	CF Pachuca
2019-02-08	€2.3M	CF Pachuca
2019-08-13	€2M	FC Juárez
2020-01-10	€2M	FC Juárez
2020-04-08	€1.6M	FC Juárez
2020-06-27	€1.6M	FC Juárez
2020-12-23	€1.6M	Denizlispor
2021-03-16	€1.5M	Denizlispor
2021-05-21	€1.3M	Denizlispor
2021-10-12	€1.3M	Gaziantep FK
2022-01-04	€1.3M	Gaziantep FK
2022-03-31	€1.7M	Gaziantep FK
2022-06-01	€1.5M	Gaziantep FK
2022-10-27	€1.3M	Gaziantep FK
2023-03-14	€1M	Ferencvárosi TC
2023-06-07	€900k	Ferencvárosi TC
2023-09-29	€700k	Apollon Limassol
2023-12-28	€650k	Apollon Limassol
2024-05-17	€650k	Apollon Limassol
2024-09-24	€600k	Apollon Limassol
2024-12-09	€550k	Apollon Limassol
2025-05-29	€450k	Apollon Limassol
2025-12-12	€400k	AE Larisa
2026-06-04	€350k	AE Larisa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.411

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 25% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 10% of the 1,583 attackers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Sagal appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).