JiriPavlenka

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club: PAOK Thessaloniki
League: Super League
Nationality: Czech Republic
Age: 34
Height: 196 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pavlenka at €700k. Model A, which never saw Pavlenka during training, estimates €825k: the market value is 15% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €637k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 28
Minutes: 2,421
Started: 28/28
Min / app: 86
Cards: 0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pavlenka…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

31% this player0% goalkeeper median95th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €250k; Apr 2014
Peak: €12M; Mar 2019
Model target: €700k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 33; 3 club changes

Jun 2026€700kPAOK ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €700k, PAOK Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2014-04-17	€250k	FC Banik Ostrava
2014-10-10	€500k	FC Banik Ostrava
2015-01-17	€750k	FC Banik Ostrava
2015-10-14	€750k	FC Banik Ostrava
2016-08-03	€750k	SK Slavia Prague
2016-10-16	€900k	SK Slavia Prague
2016-12-19	€1M	SK Slavia Prague
2017-04-15	€1.3M	SK Slavia Prague
2017-06-10	€1.5M	SK Slavia Prague
2017-10-18	€3M	SV Werder Bremen
2017-12-28	€4.5M	SV Werder Bremen
2018-04-04	€7M	SV Werder Bremen
2018-06-05	€10M	SV Werder Bremen
2018-12-18	€10M	SV Werder Bremen
2019-03-06	€12M	SV Werder Bremen
2019-06-05	€12M	SV Werder Bremen
2019-12-17	€10M	SV Werder Bremen
2020-03-11	€8M	SV Werder Bremen
2020-04-08	€6.5M	SV Werder Bremen
2021-02-10	€6.5M	SV Werder Bremen
2021-05-28	€5.5M	SV Werder Bremen
2021-10-13	€2.5M	SV Werder Bremen
2021-12-15	€2.5M	SV Werder Bremen
2022-06-16	€3M	SV Werder Bremen
2022-11-09	€3M	SV Werder Bremen
2023-06-22	€3M	SV Werder Bremen
2023-12-14	€2M	SV Werder Bremen
2024-03-27	€1.5M	SV Werder Bremen
2024-05-29	€1.5M	SV Werder Bremen
2024-12-18	€1.2M	PAOK Thessaloniki
2025-05-23	€900k	PAOK Thessaloniki
2025-12-12	€800k	PAOK Thessaloniki
2026-06-04	€700k	PAOK Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.164

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 55% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 35% of the 485 goalkeepers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Pavlenka appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).