FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Jamie Vardy

Jamie

Vardy

CFEngland · US Cremonese

№ 197838Emerging €744k +0.30

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

JamieVardy

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
US Cremonese
League
Serie A
Nationality
England
Age
39
Height
179 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vardy at €1M. Model A, which never saw Vardy during training, estimates €744k: the market value is 34% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €556k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.30A €744k▲ +0.59B €556k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
65
Minutes
5,007
Goals
17
Assists
7
Started
60/65
Min / app
77
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vardy…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €744k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jamie Vardy's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 58th, Assists per 90 42nd, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 77th, European club minutes 28th58thGoals42ndAssists91stMinutes97thStarts77thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player59% attacker median97th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Apr 2012
Peak
€20M
Aug 2016
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
34
2 club changes
May 2026€1MUS CremoneseValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, US Cremonese. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-04-01€100kFleetwood Town
2012-07-02€1MLeicester City
2013-03-02€1MLeicester City
2013-07-11€750kLeicester City
2014-01-08€1.5MLeicester City
2014-08-12€2MLeicester City
2015-02-12€2MLeicester City
2015-07-01€4.5MLeicester City
2015-10-14€6MLeicester City
2016-02-09€12MLeicester City
2016-06-01€18MLeicester City
2016-08-01€20MLeicester City
2017-02-20€15MLeicester City
2017-06-28€15MLeicester City
2018-01-02€18MLeicester City
2018-05-28€20MLeicester City
2018-12-19€20MLeicester City
2019-06-13€20MLeicester City
2019-12-10€20MLeicester City
2020-04-08€16MLeicester City
2020-10-13€16MLeicester City
2021-03-18€10MLeicester City
2021-06-08€7MLeicester City
2021-12-23€5MLeicester City
2022-06-15€5MLeicester City
2022-11-03€4MLeicester City
2023-06-20€2.5MLeicester City
2023-10-27€2MLeicester City
2023-12-21€1MLeicester City
2024-05-24€1MLeicester City
2024-12-16€1MLeicester City
2025-05-30€1MLeicester City
2025-12-23€1MUS Cremonese
2026-05-29€1MUS Cremonese

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.296

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 8% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 29% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vardy appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).