FairValue

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Andriy

Yarmolenko

RWUkraine · Dynamo Kyiv

№ 69015Emerging €905k +0.10

Player dossierPremier Liha

AndriyYarmolenko

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Dynamo Kyiv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
36
Height
189 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Yarmolenko at €1M. Model A, which never saw Yarmolenko during training, estimates €905k: the market value is 10% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.10A €905k▼ −0.09B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
3,564
Goals
22
Assists
2
Started
47/63
Min / app
57
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Yarmolenko…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €905k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Andriy Yarmolenko's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 92nd, Assists per 90 15th, Minutes, two years 75th, Starts 75th, Minutes, last 365 days 58th, European club minutes 91st92ndGoals15thAssists75thMinutes75thStarts58thRecent91stEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.56 this player0.26 attacker median92nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Mar 2008
Peak
€25M
Dec 2015
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
44
5 club changes
Jun 2026€1MDynamo KyivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, Dynamo Kyiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2008-03-05€200kDynamo-2 Kyiv
2008-09-11€500kDynamo Kyiv
2008-12-13€800kDynamo Kyiv
2009-02-11€900kDynamo Kyiv
2009-05-25€1MDynamo Kyiv
2009-09-22€2.2MDynamo Kyiv
2010-02-18€3.5MDynamo Kyiv
2010-08-28€4MDynamo Kyiv
2011-01-05€5MDynamo Kyiv
2011-06-16€7.5MDynamo Kyiv
2012-01-05€9MDynamo Kyiv
2012-07-02€13MDynamo Kyiv
2013-06-17€17MDynamo Kyiv
2014-01-02€20MDynamo Kyiv
2014-06-30€20MDynamo Kyiv
2014-12-25€22MDynamo Kyiv
2015-06-07€24MDynamo Kyiv
2015-12-18€25MDynamo Kyiv
2016-06-01€22MDynamo Kyiv
2016-07-21€22MDynamo Kyiv
2017-01-03€19MDynamo Kyiv
2017-06-26€18MDynamo Kyiv
2017-10-18€25MBorussia Dortmund
2017-12-28€25MBorussia Dortmund
2018-06-05€23MBorussia Dortmund
2018-08-13€20MWest Ham United
2018-12-19€20MWest Ham United
2019-06-13€20MWest Ham United
2019-12-10€15MWest Ham United
2020-03-09€12MWest Ham United
2020-04-08€9.5MWest Ham United
2020-10-13€7.5MWest Ham United
2021-03-18€5MWest Ham United
2021-05-27€4MWest Ham United
2021-12-23€3.5MWest Ham United
2022-06-15€2.5MWest Ham United
2022-12-15€2.5MAl-Ain FC
2023-05-31€2MAl-Ain FC
2023-12-11€2MDynamo Kyiv
2024-06-06€2MDynamo Kyiv
2024-12-17€1.5MDynamo Kyiv
2025-06-10€1.5MDynamo Kyiv
2025-12-18€1.2MDynamo Kyiv
2026-06-02€1MDynamo Kyiv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.099

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 77% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 29% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Yarmolenko appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).