FairValue

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Portrait of Alberto Moreno

Alberto

Moreno

LBSpain · Como 1907

№ 207917Emerging €1.4M −0.37

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

AlbertoMoreno

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Como 1907
League
Serie A
Nationality
Spain
Age
33
Height
171 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Moreno at €1M. Model A, which never saw Moreno during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 31% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.45. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €456k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.37A €1.4M▲ +0.78B €456k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
48
Minutes
3,329
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
38/48
Min / app
69
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moreno…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Alberto Moreno's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 66th, Assists per 90 59th, Minutes, two years 59th, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 45th, European club minutes 30th66thGoals59thAssists59thMinutes43rdStarts45thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.05 this player0.03 defender median66th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jan 2013
Peak
€15M
Jul 2014
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
35
4 club changes
May 2026€1MComo 1907Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, Como 1907. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-01-16€200kSevilla Atlético
2013-03-08€600kSevilla FC
2013-06-12€2.5MSevilla FC
2013-08-07€4MSevilla FC
2013-09-17€6MSevilla FC
2013-10-21€8MSevilla FC
2014-01-23€10MSevilla FC
2014-07-20€15MSevilla FC
2015-02-12€15MLiverpool FC
2015-07-01€15MLiverpool FC
2016-02-09€15MLiverpool FC
2016-08-01€15MLiverpool FC
2016-10-24€12MLiverpool FC
2017-02-20€10MLiverpool FC
2017-06-28€10MLiverpool FC
2018-01-02€12MLiverpool FC
2018-05-28€10MLiverpool FC
2018-12-19€9MLiverpool FC
2019-06-13€9MLiverpool FC
2019-12-20€7.5MVillarreal CF
2020-04-08€6MVillarreal CF
2020-10-08€5MVillarreal CF
2021-01-05€3MVillarreal CF
2021-06-10€2.5MVillarreal CF
2021-12-30€5MVillarreal CF
2022-06-03€5MVillarreal CF
2022-11-07€4MVillarreal CF
2023-06-13€3MVillarreal CF
2023-10-13€2MVillarreal CF
2023-12-22€2MVillarreal CF
2024-06-07€1.8MVillarreal CF
2024-12-18€1.8MComo 1907
2025-06-17€1.5MComo 1907
2025-12-23€1MComo 1907
2026-05-29€1MComo 1907

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.369

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 8% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Moreno appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).