Brian
Mansilla
LWUruguay · FC Arouca
Player dossierLiga Portugal
BrianMansilla
LWLeft WingerAttack
- Club
- FC Arouca
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Uruguay
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Mansilla at €800k. Model A, which never saw Mansilla during training, estimates €388k: the market value is 106% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €404k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 32
- Minutes
- 650
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 4/32
- Min / app
- 20
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mansilla…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
0% this player0% attacker median28th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €150k
- Jun 2022
- Peak
- €1.2M
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €800k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 10
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €800k, FC Arouca. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-02 | €150k | CA Peñarol |
| 2022-11-12 | €300k | CA Peñarol |
| 2023-07-10 | €500k | CA Peñarol |
| 2023-12-28 | €500k | CA Peñarol |
| 2024-03-26 | €700k | Defensor Sporting Club |
| 2024-06-10 | €1.2M | Defensor Sporting Club |
| 2024-12-19 | €1M | Defensor Sporting Club |
| 2025-05-30 | €1M | FC Arouca |
| 2025-12-18 | €1M | FC Arouca |
| 2026-05-28 | €800k | FC Arouca |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.725
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 35% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 25% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Mansilla appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- RamosGKFC Porto · Liga Portugal€800k
- KuipersLBFC Arouca · Liga Portugal€800k
- XekaCMGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€800k
- VirgíniaGKSporting CP · Liga Portugal€800k
- RamanCFKV Mechelen · attackers€800k
- NiangCFGenclerbirligi Ankara · attackers€800k
- PratsCFRCD Mallorca · attackers€800k
- JeremejeffCFPAOK Thessaloniki · attackers€800k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).