Pedro
Carvalho
RBPortugal · GD Estoril Praia
Player dossierLiga Portugal
PedroCarvalho
RBRight-BackDefender
- Club
- GD Estoril Praia
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 169 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Carvalho at €800k. Model A, which never saw Carvalho during training, estimates €926k: the market value is 14% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 45
- Minutes
- 2,007
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 19/45
- Min / app
- 45
- Cards
- 7Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Carvalho…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Assists per 90
Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
0.13 this player0.04 defender median85th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Sept 2023
- Peak
- €800k
- Mar 2026
- Model target
- €800k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 9
- 1 club change
May 2026: €800k, GD Estoril Praia. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-29 | €50k | CF Os Belenenses |
| 2023-12-14 | €150k | CF Os Belenenses |
| 2024-06-20 | €275k | CF Os Belenenses |
| 2024-12-19 | €300k | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2025-05-30 | €400k | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2025-09-30 | €500k | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2025-12-18 | €500k | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2026-03-19 | €800k | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2026-05-28 | €800k | GD Estoril Praia |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.147
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 35% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 29% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Carvalho appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- RamosGKFC Porto · Liga Portugal€800k
- KuipersLBFC Arouca · Liga Portugal€800k
- XekaCMGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€800k
- VirgíniaGKSporting CP · Liga Portugal€800k
- CaraccioloCBPisa Sporting Club · defenders€800k
- BianchettiCBUS Cremonese · defenders€800k
- WidmerRB1.FSV Mainz 05 · defenders€800k
- WinckRBKasimpasa · defenders€800k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).