FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of João Virgínia

João

Virgínia

GKPortugal · Sporting CP

№ 329813Emerging €2M −0.91

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLiga Portugal

JoãoVirgínia

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Sporting CP
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
26
Height
192 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Virgínia at €800k. Model A, which never saw Virgínia during training, estimates €2M: the market value is 60% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.49. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €958k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.91A €2M▼ −0.18B €958k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
5
Minutes
450
Started
5/5
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Virgínia…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

João Virgínia's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 1st, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 14th, European club minutes 84th1stMinutes62ndStarts14thRecent84thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

20% this player0% goalkeeper median84th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
May 2019
Peak
€1M
Jun 2021
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
18
6 club changes
May 2026€800kSporting CPValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, Sporting CP. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-05-23€500kEverton FC U23
2019-10-17€150kReading FC
2020-07-30€150kEverton FC
2020-10-13€500kEverton FC
2021-03-18€500kEverton FC
2021-06-08€1MEverton FC
2021-12-27€1MSporting CP
2022-05-31€1MSporting CP
2022-11-11€1MSC Cambuur Leeuwarden
2023-03-17€700kSC Cambuur Leeuwarden
2023-06-23€600kSC Cambuur Leeuwarden
2023-12-19€800kEverton FC
2024-05-27€800kEverton FC
2024-12-16€800kEverton FC
2025-05-30€800kEverton FC
2025-09-30€1MSporting CP
2025-12-18€1MSporting CP
2026-05-28€800kSporting CP

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.914

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 35% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 39% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Virgínia appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).