FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Korede

Osundina

RWUnited States · Casa Pia AC

№ 975138Emerging €648k −0.62

Player dossierLiga Portugal

KoredeOsundina

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Casa Pia AC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
United States
Age
22
Height
183 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Osundina at €350k. Model A, which never saw Osundina during training, estimates €648k: the market value is 46% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.85. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €919k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.62A €648k▼ −0.97B €919k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
938
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
10/26
Min / app
36
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Osundina…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €350kModel A €648k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Korede Osundina's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 34th, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 17th, Starts 19th, Minutes, last 365 days 24th, European club minutes 28th34thGoals6thAssists17thMinutes19thStarts24thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.19 this player0.26 attacker median34th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jun 2022
Peak
€450k
Dec 2024
Model target
€350k
May 2026
Valuations
9
2 club changes
May 2026€350kCasa Pia ACValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €350k, Casa Pia AC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-06-10€100kOrange County SC
2022-11-29€200kOrange County SC
2023-05-19€200kOrange County SC
2024-01-08€300kFC Dordrecht
2024-06-10€350kFC Dordrecht
2024-12-10€450kFC Dordrecht
2025-05-30€450kCasa Pia AC
2025-12-18€350kCasa Pia AC
2026-05-28€350kCasa Pia AC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.616

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 11% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 10% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Osundina appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).