João
Simões
CMPortugal · Sporting CP
Player dossierLiga Portugal
JoãoSimões
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Sporting CP
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 19
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Simões at €15M. Model A, which never saw Simões during training, estimates €9.6M: the market value is 56% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.56. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 45
- Minutes
- 2,230
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 27/45
- Min / app
- 50
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Simões…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
40% this player0% midfielder median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €2.5M
- Dec 2024
- Peak
- €15M
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €15M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 5
- 0 club changes
May 2026: €15M, Sporting CP. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-19 | €2.5M | Sporting CP |
| 2025-03-31 | €6M | Sporting CP |
| 2025-05-30 | €6M | Sporting CP |
| 2025-12-18 | €15M | Sporting CP |
| 2026-05-28 | €15M | Sporting CP |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.442
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 90% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Simões appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- AursnesCMSL Benfica · Liga Portugal€15M
- LukébakioRWSL Benfica · Liga Portugal€15M
- IvanovićCFSL Benfica · Liga Portugal€15M
- VíctorCFSC Braga · Liga Portugal€15M
- HøjbjergDMOlympique Marseille · midfielders€15M
- BrandtAMBorussia Dortmund · midfielders€15M
- PalhinhaDMTottenham Hotspur · midfielders€15M
- AsensioAMFenerbahce · midfielders€15M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).