FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Pau

Víctor

CFSpain · SC Braga

№ 707572Elite €16.1M −0.07

Player dossierLiga Portugal

PauVíctor

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
SC Braga
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Spain
Age
24
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Víctor at €15M. Model A, which never saw Víctor during training, estimates €16.1M: the market value is 7% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.08. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €21.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.07A €16.1M▼ −0.34B €21.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
81
Minutes
3,702
Goals
19
Assists
7
Started
40/81
Min / app
46
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Víctor…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €16.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Pau Víctor's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 84th, Assists per 90 59th, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 34th, Minutes, last 365 days 98th, European club minutes 89th84thGoals59thAssists77thMinutes34thStarts98thRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,324 this player1,301 attacker median98th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Nov 2020
Peak
€15M
May 2026
Model target
€15M
May 2026
Valuations
16
5 club changes
May 2026€15MSC BragaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €15M, SC Braga. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-11-23€100kGirona FC B
2021-01-08€200kGirona FC B
2021-06-24€200kGirona FC B
2022-09-26€200kCE Sabadell FC
2022-12-29€200kCE Sabadell FC
2023-06-30€300kGirona FC
2023-10-13€500kFC Barcelona Atlètic
2023-12-20€800kFC Barcelona Atlètic
2024-06-24€1.5MFC Barcelona Atlètic
2024-10-11€5MFC Barcelona
2024-12-27€5MFC Barcelona
2025-06-09€4MFC Barcelona
2025-09-30€10MSC Braga
2025-12-18€10MSC Braga
2026-03-19€12MSC Braga
2026-05-28€15MSC Braga

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.073

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 90% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 81% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Víctor appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).