FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Lennon Miller

Lennon

Miller

CMScotland · Udinese Calcio

№ 924857Elite €13M −0.26

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

LennonMiller

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Udinese Calcio
League
Serie A
Nationality
Scotland
Age
19
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Miller at €10M. Model A, which never saw Miller during training, estimates €13M: the market value is 23% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €11.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.26A €13M▼ −0.12B €11.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
3,447
Goals
3
Assists
8
Started
37/53
Min / app
65
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Miller…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €13M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Lennon Miller's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 48th, Assists per 90 86th, Minutes, two years 65th, Starts 51st, Minutes, last 365 days 35th, European club minutes 30th48thGoals86thAssists65thMinutes51stStarts35thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.21 this player0.09 midfielder median86th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Sept 2023
Peak
€10M
Mar 2026
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
10
1 club change
May 2026€10MUdinese CalcioValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Udinese Calcio. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-09-22€200kMotherwell FC
2023-12-05€800kMotherwell FC
2024-03-20€1MMotherwell FC
2024-05-30€1.5MMotherwell FC
2024-10-02€1.6MMotherwell FC
2024-12-03€4MMotherwell FC
2025-06-17€8MMotherwell FC
2025-12-23€8MUdinese Calcio
2026-03-24€10MUdinese Calcio
2026-05-29€10MUdinese Calcio

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.263

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 65% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Miller appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).