Obed
Vargas
CMMexico · Atlético de Madrid
Player dossierLaLiga
ObedVargas
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Atlético de Madrid
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Mexico
- Age
- 20
- Height
- 175 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
LaLigaReading the valuation
The market values Vargas at €10M. Model A, which never saw Vargas during training, estimates €13.1M: the market value is 24% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 16
- Minutes
- 1,017
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 11/16
- Min / app
- 64
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vargas…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
26% this player0% midfielder median92nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €175k
- Nov 2021
- Peak
- €10M
- Jun 2026
- Model target
- €10M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 14
- 2 club changes
Jun 2026: €10M, Atlético de Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-25 | €175k | Tacoma Defiance |
| 2022-04-01 | €500k | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 2022-08-18 | €2M | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 2022-11-08 | €2M | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 2023-08-22 | €3M | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 2023-12-18 | €3M | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 2024-06-13 | €3M | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 2024-09-26 | €3.5M | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 2024-12-12 | €3.5M | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 2025-04-17 | €6M | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 2025-06-05 | €6M | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 2025-09-12 | €8M | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 2025-12-11 | €8M | Seattle Sounders FC |
| 2026-06-05 | €10M | Atlético de Madrid |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.270
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 78% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Vargas appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- AmrabatDMReal Betis Balompié · LaLiga€10M
- GarcíaLBReal Madrid · LaLiga€10M
- BlancoDMDeportivo Alavés · LaLiga€10M
- SucicCMReal Sociedad · LaLiga€10M
- KovacicCMManchester City · midfielders€10M
- ZielinskiCMInter Milan · midfielders€10M
- EggesteinCMSC Freiburg · midfielders€10M
- TolissoCMOlympique Lyon · midfielders€10M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).