FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Mateo Kovacic

Mateo

Kovacic

CMCroatia · Manchester City

№ 51471Elite €6M +0.51

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MateoKovacic

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Manchester City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Croatia
Age
32
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kovacic at €10M. Model A, which never saw Kovacic during training, estimates €6M: the market value is 67% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.67. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.51A €6M▲ +1.26B €2.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
49
Minutes
3,006
Goals
7
Assists
4
Started
33/49
Min / app
61
Cards
6Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kovacic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mateo Kovacic's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 84th, Assists per 90 60th, Minutes, two years 57th, Starts 46th, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 74th84thGoals60thAssists57thMinutes46thStarts6thRecent74thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.21 this player0.08 midfielder median84th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Feb 2011
Peak
€45M
Dec 2019
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
42
4 club changes
Jun 2026€10MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-02-13€500kGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2011-08-29€1.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2012-02-29€3MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2012-09-30€3MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2013-02-12€12MInter Milan
2013-06-19€15MInter Milan
2014-01-07€15MInter Milan
2014-07-11€19MInter Milan
2014-11-08€22MInter Milan
2015-01-07€22MInter Milan
2015-07-01€22MInter Milan
2015-08-25€25MReal Madrid
2015-11-22€20MReal Madrid
2016-02-22€20MReal Madrid
2016-06-01€20MReal Madrid
2016-07-15€20MReal Madrid
2017-01-24€25MReal Madrid
2017-06-05€25MReal Madrid
2018-01-01€25MReal Madrid
2018-03-22€30MReal Madrid
2018-05-30€30MReal Madrid
2018-12-19€35MChelsea FC
2019-06-13€35MChelsea FC
2019-12-10€45MChelsea FC
2020-04-08€36MChelsea FC
2020-07-30€40MChelsea FC
2020-10-13€45MChelsea FC
2021-03-18€45MChelsea FC
2021-05-28€45MChelsea FC
2021-12-23€45MChelsea FC
2022-06-15€42MChelsea FC
2022-11-03€40MChelsea FC
2023-06-20€38MChelsea FC
2023-12-19€38MManchester City
2024-03-14€30MManchester City
2024-05-27€30MManchester City
2024-12-16€28MManchester City
2025-03-18€25MManchester City
2025-05-30€20MManchester City
2025-12-09€15MManchester City
2026-03-09€12MManchester City
2026-06-03€10MManchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.512

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 32% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kovacic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).