FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Finn Jeltsch

Finn

Jeltsch

CBGermany · VfB Stuttgart

№ 924117World Class €30.5M +0.14

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

FinnJeltsch

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
VfB Stuttgart
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
19
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Jeltsch at €35M. Model A, which never saw Jeltsch during training, estimates €30.5M: the market value is 15% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €21.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.14A €30.5M▲ +0.48B €21.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
3,533
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
40/52
Min / app
68
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jeltsch…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €35M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €35MModel A €30.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Finn Jeltsch's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 41st, Minutes, two years 62nd, Starts 38th, Minutes, last 365 days 75th, European club minutes 85th18thGoals41stAssists62ndMinutes38thStarts75thRecent85thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

21% this player0% defender median85th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Oct 2023
Peak
€35M
May 2026
Model target
€35M
May 2026
Valuations
10
1 club change
May 2026€35MVfB StuttgartValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €35M, VfB Stuttgart. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-10-20€500k1.FC Nuremberg
2023-12-15€1M1.FC Nuremberg
2024-03-22€3M1.FC Nuremberg
2024-06-06€5M1.FC Nuremberg
2024-12-19€5M1.FC Nuremberg
2025-03-27€12MVfB Stuttgart
2025-06-05€20MVfB Stuttgart
2025-12-19€25MVfB Stuttgart
2026-03-20€30MVfB Stuttgart
2026-05-27€35MVfB Stuttgart

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.137

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 92% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 96% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Jeltsch appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).