FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Joel Ordóñez

Joel

Ordóñez

CBEcuador · Club Brugge KV

№ 893661World Class €17.7M +0.63

Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits, CC BY-SA 4.0 (background removed)

Player dossierPro League

JoelOrdóñez

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Club Brugge KV
League
Pro League
Nationality
Ecuador
Age
22
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ordóñez at €33M. Model A, which never saw Ordóñez during training, estimates €17.7M: the market value is 87% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.87. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €25.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.63A €17.7M▲ +0.24B €25.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
79
Minutes
6,410
Goals
5
Assists
0
Started
73/79
Min / app
81
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ordóñez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €33M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €33MModel A €17.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Joel Ordóñez's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 75th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 95th, Starts 77th, Minutes, last 365 days 97th, European club minutes 95th75thGoals17thAssists95thMinutes77thStarts97thRecent95thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,629 this player1,687 defender median97th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2022
Peak
€33M
Mar 2026
Model target
€33M
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
2 club changes
Jun 2026€33MClub Brugge KVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €33M, Club Brugge KV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-01-01€50kIndependiente del Valle
2022-06-20€600kIndependiente del Valle
2022-09-07€2MClub NXT
2022-11-04€2MClub NXT
2023-05-30€1.5MClub NXT
2023-12-19€2.5MClub Brugge KV
2024-06-04€6MClub Brugge KV
2024-10-02€9MClub Brugge KV
2024-12-11€18MClub Brugge KV
2025-03-26€27MClub Brugge KV
2025-06-12€28MClub Brugge KV
2025-12-10€28MClub Brugge KV
2026-03-13€33MClub Brugge KV
2026-06-04€33MClub Brugge KV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.625

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

3rd highest observed value among 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€33MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 96% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€33MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ordóñez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).