FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Ferdi

Kadıoğlu

LBTürkiye · Brighton & Hove Albion

№ 369316World Class €30.6M +0.14

Player dossierPremier League

FerdiKadıoğlu

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Brighton & Hove Albion
League
Premier League
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
26
Height
174 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kadıoğlu at €35M. Model A, which never saw Kadıoğlu during training, estimates €30.6M: the market value is 15% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €11.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.14A €30.6M▲ +1.14B €11.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
4,201
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
47/53
Min / app
79
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kadıoğlu…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €35M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €35MModel A €30.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ferdi Kadıoğlu's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 72nd, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 73rd, Starts 65th, Minutes, last 365 days 96th, European club minutes 66th72ndGoals17thAssists73rdMinutes65thStarts96thRecent66thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,515 this player1,687 defender median96th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2016
Peak
€35M
Jun 2026
Model target
€35M
Jun 2026
Valuations
32
2 club changes
Jun 2026€35MBrighton & Hove AlbionValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €35M, Brighton & Hove Albion. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-07-01€50kNEC Nijmegen
2016-10-17€150kNEC Nijmegen
2017-01-18€600kNEC Nijmegen
2017-06-07€1.3MNEC Nijmegen
2018-03-01€1.5MNEC Nijmegen
2018-06-29€1.5MNEC Nijmegen
2019-01-04€1.1MFenerbahce
2019-06-04€900kFenerbahce
2019-10-04€1.5MFenerbahce
2020-01-03€2.8MFenerbahce
2020-04-08€2.5MFenerbahce
2020-08-04€4MFenerbahce
2020-12-23€5.5MFenerbahce
2021-03-16€4.8MFenerbahce
2021-05-21€4.2MFenerbahce
2021-10-12€6.5MFenerbahce
2022-01-04€8MFenerbahce
2022-03-31€9.5MFenerbahce
2022-06-01€10.5MFenerbahce
2022-10-27€12MFenerbahce
2023-03-14€15MFenerbahce
2023-06-08€17MFenerbahce
2023-09-27€17MFenerbahce
2023-12-21€20MFenerbahce
2024-03-15€20MFenerbahce
2024-05-31€21MFenerbahce
2024-07-18€30MFenerbahce
2024-12-16€30MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-05-30€25MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-12-09€28MBrighton & Hove Albion
2026-03-09€30MBrighton & Hove Albion
2026-06-03€35MBrighton & Hove Albion

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.136

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 79% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 96% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€35MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kadıoğlu appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).