FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Anton

Shamonin

CFRussia · FC Rostov

№ 917991Emerging €429k −0.20

Player dossierPremier Liga

AntonShamonin

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
FC Rostov
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
21
Height
194 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Shamonin at €350k. Model A, which never saw Shamonin during training, estimates €429k: the market value is 18% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €535k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.20A €429k▼ −0.42B €535k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
27
Minutes
551
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
6/27
Min / app
20
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Shamonin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €350kModel A €429k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Anton Shamonin's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 4th, Starts 5th, Minutes, last 365 days 8th, European club minutes 28th3rdGoals6thAssists4thMinutes5thStarts8thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% attacker median28th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2023
Peak
€350k
Dec 2025
Model target
€350k
May 2026
Valuations
8
2 club changes
May 2026€350kFC RostovValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €350k, FC Rostov. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-10-05€100kFC Rostov II
2023-12-13€100kFC Rostov II
2024-06-04€100kFC Rostov 2
2024-11-22€150kFC Rostov 2
2025-06-04€250kFC Rostov 2
2025-09-18€300kFC Rostov
2025-12-16€350kFC Rostov
2026-05-26€350kFC Rostov

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.204

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 8% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 10% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Shamonin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).