FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Marcus

Linday

CMSweden · SC Heerenveen

№ 899163Established €3.5M +0.35

Player dossierEredivisie

MarcusLinday

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
SC Heerenveen
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Sweden
Age
22
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Linday at €5M. Model A, which never saw Linday during training, estimates €3.5M: the market value is 42% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.35A €3.5M▲ +0.03B €4.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
3,977
Goals
3
Assists
5
Started
46/52
Min / app
76
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Linday…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €3.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Marcus Linday's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 43rd, Assists per 90 57th, Minutes, two years 73rd, Starts 84th, Minutes, last 365 days 83rd, European club minutes 30th43rdGoals57thAssists73rdMinutes84thStarts83rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

88% this player69% midfielder median84th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Jun 2024
Peak
€5M
May 2026
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
8
1 club change
May 2026€5MSC HeerenveenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, SC Heerenveen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-06-13€500kVästerås SK
2024-09-26€1.2MVästerås SK
2024-12-20€1.5MVästerås SK
2025-03-28€2.5MSC Heerenveen
2025-05-28€4MSC Heerenveen
2025-12-02€3.5MSC Heerenveen
2026-03-11€4MSC Heerenveen
2026-05-28€5MSC Heerenveen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.351

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 80% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Linday appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).