FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Alexander

Lyng

LWDenmark · Sönderjyske Fodbold

№ 880517Emerging €1.1M +0.05

Player dossierSuperliga

AlexanderLyng

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Sönderjyske Fodbold
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
21
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lyng at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Lyng during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 5% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.05A €1.1M▼ −0.02B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
38
Minutes
2,040
Goals
6
Assists
1
Started
24/38
Min / app
54
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lyng…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Alexander Lyng's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 50th, Assists per 90 14th, Minutes, two years 46th, Starts 57th, Minutes, last 365 days 54th, European club minutes 28th50thGoals14thAssists46thMinutes57thStarts54thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

63% this player59% attacker median57th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Dec 2021
Peak
€1.2M
Dec 2025
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
12
2 club changes
May 2026€1.2MSönderjyske FodboldValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Sönderjyske Fodbold. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-12-28€150kFC Helsingør
2022-06-20€150kFC Helsingør
2022-09-13€400kFC Helsingør
2022-12-22€400kFC Helsingør
2023-06-26€500kFC Helsingør
2023-10-19€500kServette FC
2023-12-21€500kServette FC
2024-05-31€500kServette FC
2024-12-09€550kSönderjyske Fodbold
2025-06-16€700kSönderjyske Fodbold
2025-12-15€1.2MSönderjyske Fodbold
2026-05-25€1.2MSönderjyske Fodbold

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.050

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 61% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 34% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lyng appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).