Adrian
Blake
LWEngland · FC Utrecht
Player dossierEredivisie
AdrianBlake
LWLeft WingerAttack
- Club
- FC Utrecht
- League
- Eredivisie
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 20
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
EredivisieReading the valuation
The market values Blake at €2M. Model A, which never saw Blake during training, estimates €6.5M: the market value is 69% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×3.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €13.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 56
- Minutes
- 2,198
- Goals
- 8
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 20/56
- Min / app
- 39
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Blake…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
31% this player0% attacker median95th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €300k
- Oct 2023
- Peak
- €3M
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €2M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 9
- 1 club change
May 2026: €2M, FC Utrecht. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-17 | €300k | FC Utrecht U21 |
| 2023-12-15 | €300k | FC Utrecht U21 |
| 2024-06-10 | €500k | FC Utrecht U21 |
| 2024-12-17 | €500k | FC Utrecht |
| 2025-05-28 | €750k | FC Utrecht |
| 2025-10-02 | €1.3M | FC Utrecht |
| 2025-12-02 | €3M | FC Utrecht |
| 2026-03-11 | €2M | FC Utrecht |
| 2026-05-28 | €2M | FC Utrecht |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −1.174
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Eredivisie425 players · median €1M
Valued above 62% of the 425 Eredivisie players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 44% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Blake appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BerghuisRWAjax Amsterdam · Eredivisie€2M
- KlaassenCMAjax Amsterdam · Eredivisie€2M
- OlijGKPSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie€2M
- WeghorstCFAjax Amsterdam · Eredivisie€2M
- BatshuayiCFEintracht Frankfurt · attackers€2M
- WaldschmidtCF1.FC Köln · attackers€2M
- AyensaCFStandard Liège · attackers€2M
- ZinkovskiyLWFC Sochi · attackers€2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).