FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Michy

Batshuayi

CFBelgium · Eintracht Frankfurt

№ 179184Established €656k +1.11

Player dossierBundesliga

MichyBatshuayi

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Eintracht Frankfurt
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Belgium
Age
32
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Batshuayi at €2M. Model A, which never saw Batshuayi during training, estimates €656k: the market value is 205% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.11A €656k▲ +0.52B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
49
Minutes
1,199
Goals
11
Assists
2
Started
8/49
Min / app
24
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Batshuayi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €656k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Michy Batshuayi's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 99th, Assists per 90 52nd, Minutes, two years 24th, Starts 2nd, Minutes, last 365 days 4th, European club minutes 94th99thGoals52ndAssists24thMinutes2ndStarts4thRecent94thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.83 this player0.26 attacker median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2011
Peak
€40M
Apr 2018
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
48
11 club changes
May 2026€2MEintracht FrankfurtValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, Eintracht Frankfurt. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-07-11€50kStandard Liège
2011-08-12€400kStandard Liège
2012-01-05€600kStandard Liège
2012-04-03€1.5MStandard Liège
2013-01-09€2MStandard Liège
2013-06-25€3.5MStandard Liège
2013-10-08€5MStandard Liège
2014-02-10€8MStandard Liège
2014-06-28€8MStandard Liège
2014-08-07€8MOlympique Marseille
2015-01-14€7.5MOlympique Marseille
2015-06-06€8MOlympique Marseille
2015-09-06€9MOlympique Marseille
2016-02-04€14MOlympique Marseille
2016-06-01€15MOlympique Marseille
2016-08-01€25MChelsea FC
2017-02-20€25MChelsea FC
2017-06-28€25MChelsea FC
2018-01-02€25MChelsea FC
2018-04-04€40MBorussia Dortmund
2018-06-05€40MBorussia Dortmund
2018-12-21€30MValencia CF
2019-06-13€30MCrystal Palace
2019-09-12€25MChelsea FC
2019-12-10€22MChelsea FC
2020-04-08€17.5MChelsea FC
2020-07-30€14MChelsea FC
2020-10-13€12MCrystal Palace
2021-03-18€10MCrystal Palace
2021-05-26€10MCrystal Palace
2021-10-12€10MBesiktas JK
2022-01-04€10MBesiktas JK
2022-03-31€10MBesiktas JK
2022-06-01€10MBesiktas JK
2022-09-13€9.5MFenerbahce
2022-10-27€10MFenerbahce
2023-03-14€10MFenerbahce
2023-06-08€10MFenerbahce
2023-09-27€9MFenerbahce
2023-12-21€7.5MFenerbahce
2024-03-15€8MFenerbahce
2024-05-31€8.5MFenerbahce
2024-10-04€8MGalatasaray
2024-12-23€7MGalatasaray
2025-03-27€5MEintracht Frankfurt
2025-06-05€4MEintracht Frankfurt
2025-12-19€3MEintracht Frankfurt
2026-05-27€2MEintracht Frankfurt

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.115

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 19% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 44% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Batshuayi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).