Fabian
Bredlow
GKGermany · VfB Stuttgart
Player dossierBundesliga
FabianBredlow
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- VfB Stuttgart
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 190 cm
- Foot
- Both
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Bredlow at €700k. Model A, which never saw Bredlow during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 48% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.93. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €697k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 7
- Minutes
- 630
- Started
- 7/7
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bredlow…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
29% this player0% goalkeeper median93rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Apr 2014
- Peak
- €1.5M
- Mar 2023
- Model target
- €700k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 31
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €700k, VfB Stuttgart. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-17 | €50k | RB Leipzig U19 |
| 2014-06-30 | €100k | RB Leipzig U19 |
| 2014-11-22 | €200k | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2015-01-11 | €200k | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2015-06-19 | €250k | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2015-10-29 | €300k | Hallescher FC |
| 2016-02-08 | €300k | Hallescher FC |
| 2016-07-14 | €350k | Hallescher FC |
| 2017-02-10 | €400k | Hallescher FC |
| 2017-06-14 | €450k | Hallescher FC |
| 2018-01-22 | €600k | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2018-03-21 | €700k | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2018-06-19 | €1M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2018-12-18 | €1M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2019-03-06 | €700k | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2019-06-05 | €500k | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2019-12-13 | €500k | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2020-04-08 | €400k | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2021-02-10 | €400k | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2021-06-09 | €500k | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2021-12-22 | €500k | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2022-06-09 | €500k | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2022-11-09 | €700k | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2023-03-29 | €1.5M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2023-06-22 | €1.5M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2023-12-14 | €1M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2024-05-29 | €1M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2024-12-20 | €1M | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2025-06-05 | €800k | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2025-12-19 | €800k | VfB Stuttgart |
| 2026-05-27 | €700k | VfB Stuttgart |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.659
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 3% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 35% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Bredlow appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BlaswichGKBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€700k
- HornGKVfL Bochum · Bundesliga€700k
- MüllerGKVfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga€700k
- HoltmannLWVfL Bochum · Bundesliga€700k
- DmitrovicGKRCD Espanyol Barcelona · goalkeepers€700k
- DupéGKOGC Nice · goalkeepers€700k
- BrignoliGKAEK Athens · goalkeepers€700k
- PavlenkaGKPAOK Thessaloniki · goalkeepers€700k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).