FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Zakaria El

Ouahdi

RBMorocco · KRC Genk

№ 820474Elite €8M +0.75

Player dossierPro League

Zakaria ElOuahdi

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
KRC Genk
League
Pro League
Nationality
Morocco
Age
24
Height
171 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ouahdi at €17M. Model A, which never saw Ouahdi during training, estimates €8M: the market value is 112% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €14M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.75A €8M▲ +0.19B €14M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
71
Minutes
6,231
Goals
15
Assists
7
Started
70/71
Min / app
88
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ouahdi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €17M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €17MModel A €8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Zakaria El Ouahdi's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 99th, Assists per 90 77th, Minutes, two years 94th, Starts 94th, Minutes, last 365 days 98th, European club minutes 77th99thGoals77thAssists94thMinutes94thStarts98thRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.22 this player0.03 defender median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Oct 2021
Peak
€17M
Jun 2026
Model target
€17M
Jun 2026
Valuations
16
1 club change
Jun 2026€17MKRC GenkValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €17M, KRC Genk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-10-13€150kRWD Molenbeek
2022-01-13€200kRWD Molenbeek
2022-05-26€350kRWD Molenbeek
2022-10-05€200kRWD Molenbeek
2022-12-22€500kRWD Molenbeek
2023-05-30€800kRWD Molenbeek
2023-10-23€2.2MKRC Genk
2023-12-19€2.5MKRC Genk
2024-06-04€4.5MKRC Genk
2024-10-02€7MKRC Genk
2024-12-11€10MKRC Genk
2025-03-26€12MKRC Genk
2025-06-12€12MKRC Genk
2025-10-01€15MKRC Genk
2025-12-10€15MKRC Genk
2026-06-04€17MKRC Genk

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.751

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 97% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€17MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 89% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€17MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ouahdi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).