FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Daniil

Shantaliy

CMRussia · FC Rostov

№ 817607Emerging €819k −0.09

Player dossierPremier Liga

DaniilShantaliy

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Rostov
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
22
Height
179 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Shantaliy at €750k. Model A, which never saw Shantaliy during training, estimates €819k: the market value is 8% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.09A €819k▼ −0.62B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
2,577
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
29/37
Min / app
70
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Shantaliy…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €750k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €750kModel A €819k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Daniil Shantaliy's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 57th, Assists per 90 22nd, Minutes, two years 50th, Starts 67th, Minutes, last 365 days 31st, European club minutes 30th57thGoals22ndAssists50thMinutes67thStarts31stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

78% this player69% midfielder median67th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2023
Peak
€1M
Sept 2025
Model target
€750k
May 2026
Valuations
9
2 club changes
May 2026€750kFC RostovValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €750k, FC Rostov. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-06-14€50kFC Rostov II
2023-12-13€50kFC Rostov II
2024-06-04€75kFC Rostov 2
2024-11-22€125kFC Rostov 2
2025-03-19€400kFC Rostov
2025-06-04€800kFC Rostov
2025-09-18€1MFC Rostov
2025-12-16€900kFC Rostov
2026-05-26€750kFC Rostov

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.088

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 29% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 26% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Shantaliy appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).