FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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David

Semenchuk

CBRussia · FC Rostov

№ 817604Emerging €1.2M −0.32

Player dossierPremier Liga

DavidSemenchuk

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC Rostov
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
21
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Semenchuk at €900k. Model A, which never saw Semenchuk during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 27% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.32A €1.2M▼ −0.74B €1.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
29
Minutes
1,935
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
20/29
Min / app
67
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Semenchuk…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €900kModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

David Semenchuk's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 75th, Minutes, two years 32nd, Starts 26th, Minutes, last 365 days 56th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals75thAssists32ndMinutes26thStarts56thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.09 this player0.04 defender median75th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2023
Peak
€900k
Mar 2026
Model target
€900k
May 2026
Valuations
11
3 club changes
May 2026€900kFC RostovValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €900k, FC Rostov. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-06-14€50kFC Rostov II
2023-10-05€100kFC Rostov II
2023-12-13€100kFC Rostov II
2024-06-04€100kFC Rostov 2
2024-09-18€250kArsenal Tula
2024-12-04€350kArsenal Tula
2025-06-02€300kArsenal Tula
2025-09-18€500kFC Rostov
2025-12-16€750kFC Rostov
2026-03-25€900kFC Rostov
2026-05-26€900kFC Rostov

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.319

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 39% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 33% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Semenchuk appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).