AndreyMendel

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club: Baltika Kaliningrad
League: Premier Liga
Nationality: Russia
Age: 31
Height: 186 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mendel at €900k. Model A, which never saw Mendel during training, estimates €674k: the market value is 34% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €432k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 17
Minutes: 937
Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Started: 11/17
Min / app: 55
Cards: 7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mendel…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.10 this player0.08 midfielder median55th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €75k; Nov 2017
Peak: €1M; Sept 2025
Model target: €900k; May 2026
Valuations: 22; 5 club changes

May 2026€900kBaltika KaliningradValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €900k, Baltika Kaliningrad. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2017-11-24	€75k	Afips Afipskiy (-2018)
2018-06-06	€100k	Afips Afipskiy (-2018)
2018-09-20	€200k	Chernomorets Novorossijsk
2018-12-20	€225k	Chernomorets Novorossijsk
2019-06-14	€200k	Chernomorets Novorossijsk
2019-09-10	€350k	FC Khimki
2019-12-23	€450k	FC Khimki
2020-04-08	€350k	Volgar Astrakhan
2020-06-29	€350k	Volgar Astrakhan
2020-12-29	€300k	Volgar Astrakhan
2021-05-24	€300k	Volgar Astrakhan
2021-12-07	€400k	Fakel Voronezh
2022-05-30	€450k	Fakel Voronezh
2022-11-21	€500k	Fakel Voronezh
2023-06-14	€600k	Fakel Voronezh
2023-12-13	€600k	Fakel Voronezh
2024-06-04	€500k	Fakel Voronezh
2024-12-04	€700k	Baltika Kaliningrad
2025-06-02	€800k	Baltika Kaliningrad
2025-09-18	€1M	Baltika Kaliningrad
2025-12-16	€900k	Baltika Kaliningrad
2026-05-26	€900k	Baltika Kaliningrad

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.289

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 39% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

See them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 30% of the 1,687 midfielders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Mendel appears

TerminalPremier Liga in the Player Explorer
TerminalPremier Liga on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).