FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ardit

Tahiri

CFKosovo · Kolos Kovalivka

№ 808465Emerging €588k −0.52

Player dossierPremier Liha

ArditTahiri

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Kolos Kovalivka
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Kosovo
Age
23
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tahiri at €350k. Model A, which never saw Tahiri during training, estimates €588k: the market value is 40% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.68. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.52A €588k▼ −1.41B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
13
Minutes
605
Goals
2
Assists
3
Started
6/13
Min / app
47
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tahiri…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €350kModel A €588k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Ardit Tahiri's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 57th, Assists per 90 99th, Minutes, two years 6th, Starts 29th, Minutes, last 365 days 20th, European club minutes 28th57thGoals99thAssists6thMinutes29thStarts20thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.45 this player0.15 attacker median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2021
Peak
€400k
Jun 2025
Model target
€350k
Jun 2026
Valuations
12
5 club changes
Jun 2026€350kKolos KovalivkaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €350k, Kolos Kovalivka. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-01-05€50kKF Besa Pejë
2021-06-26€125kKF Besa Pejë
2021-12-19€200kFC Drita
2022-06-12€250kFC Drita
2022-12-01€250kFC Drita
2023-07-11€275kFC Drita
2023-11-17€300kFC Drita
2024-05-27€200kFC Dinamo City
2024-12-06€175kKF Llapi
2025-06-05€400kKF Llapi
2025-11-20€250kHJK Helsinki
2026-06-02€350kKolos Kovalivka

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.518

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 37% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 10% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tahiri appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).