FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jon

Ceberio

CMSpain · Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi

№ 386659Emerging €368k −0.05

Player dossierPremier Liha

JonCeberio

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Spain
Age
29
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ceberio at €350k. Model A, which never saw Ceberio during training, estimates €368k: the market value is 5% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €621k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.05A €368k▼ −0.57B €621k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
1,853
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
22/25
Min / app
74
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ceberio…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €350kModel A €368k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jon Ceberio's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 71st, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 33rd, Starts 84th, Minutes, last 365 days 60th, European club minutes 30th71stGoals8thAssists33rdMinutes84thStarts60thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

88% this player69% midfielder median84th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2017
Peak
€350k
Jun 2026
Model target
€350k
Jun 2026
Valuations
21
7 club changes
Jun 2026€350kEpicentr Kamyanets-PodilskyiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €350k, Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-17€50kPeña Sport FC
2018-01-01€150kPeña Sport FC
2018-05-30€200kPeña Sport FC
2019-02-19€250kReal Unión Club
2019-06-29€250kReal Unión Club
2019-09-10€250kUD Melilla
2020-02-11€250kUD Melilla
2020-10-08€250kCF Talavera de la Reina
2021-01-08€250kCF Talavera de la Reina
2021-06-30€250kCF Talavera de la Reina
2021-12-30€300kCF Talavera de la Reina
2022-06-29€250kCF Talavera de la Reina
2022-12-29€250kSan Fernando CD (-2025)
2023-06-30€200kSan Fernando CD (-2025)
2023-12-20€200kCF Intercity
2024-06-24€200kCF Intercity
2024-10-14€150kCD Lugo
2024-12-18€150kCD Lugo
2025-06-25€150kCD Lugo
2025-12-18€250kEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi
2026-06-02€350kEpicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.050

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 37% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 10% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ceberio appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).