FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Abdukodir Khusanov

Abdukodir

Khusanov

CBUzbekistan · Manchester City

№ 763079World Class €49.3M +0.01

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AbdukodirKhusanov

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Manchester City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Uzbekistan
Age
22
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Khusanov at €50M. Model A, which never saw Khusanov during training, estimates €49.3M: the market value is 1% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €13.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.01A €49.3M▲ +1.33B €13.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
61
Minutes
4,601
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
51/61
Min / app
75
Cards
10Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Khusanov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50MModel A €49.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Abdukodir Khusanov's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 40th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 78th, Starts 52nd, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 82nd40thGoals17thAssists78thMinutes52ndStarts84thRecent82ndEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,788 this player1,687 defender median84th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jun 2022
Peak
€50M
Jun 2026
Model target
€50M
Jun 2026
Valuations
13
2 club changes
Jun 2026€50MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €50M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-06-17€150kEnergetik-BGU Minsk
2022-11-30€300kEnergetik-BGU Minsk
2023-07-11€400kEnergetik-BGU Minsk
2023-10-16€800kRC Lens
2023-12-18€1.5MRC Lens
2024-02-21€2MRC Lens
2024-06-03€2.5MRC Lens
2024-10-07€5MRC Lens
2024-12-10€12MRC Lens
2025-03-18€35MManchester City
2025-05-30€35MManchester City
2025-12-09€35MManchester City
2026-06-03€50MManchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.014

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 88% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 98% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Khusanov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).