FairValue

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Portrait of Federico Dimarco

Federico

Dimarco

LBItaly · Inter Milan

№ 198116World Class €32.7M +0.42

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

FedericoDimarco

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Inter Milan
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
28
Height
175 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dimarco at €50M. Model A, which never saw Dimarco during training, estimates €32.7M: the market value is 53% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €49.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.42A €32.7M▲ 0.00B €49.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
97
Minutes
6,839
Goals
12
Assists
29
Started
82/97
Min / app
71
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dimarco…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50MModel A €32.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Federico Dimarco's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 96th, Assists per 90 100th, Minutes, two years 98th, Starts 54th, Minutes, last 365 days 98th, European club minutes 87th96thGoals100thAssists98thMinutes54thStarts98thRecent87thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.38 this player0.04 defender median100th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Sept 2014
Peak
€60M
Dec 2024
Model target
€50M
May 2026
Valuations
31
8 club changes
May 2026€50MInter MilanValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €50M, Inter Milan. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-09-16€150kInter Milan Primavera
2015-03-02€200kInter Milan Primavera
2015-06-17€300kInter Milan Primavera
2015-11-05€600kInter Milan
2016-01-04€600kInter Milan
2016-06-13€1.3MAscoli Picchio
2017-01-02€1.5MFC Empoli
2017-06-08€2MFC Empoli
2018-01-08€2MFC Sion
2018-04-24€2MFC Sion
2018-10-12€3.5MParma Calcio 1913
2018-12-20€3.5MParma Calcio 1913
2019-06-06€5MParma Calcio 1913
2019-12-12€5MInter Milan
2020-04-08€4MHellas Verona
2020-08-25€4.5MHellas Verona
2020-12-29€7MHellas Verona
2021-03-23€10MHellas Verona
2021-06-03€10MHellas Verona
2021-10-14€13MInter Milan
2021-12-28€16MInter Milan
2022-06-07€18MInter Milan
2022-11-11€25MInter Milan
2023-06-15€35MInter Milan
2023-10-11€45MInter Milan
2023-12-20€50MInter Milan
2024-06-05€50MInter Milan
2024-12-18€60MInter Milan
2025-06-17€50MInter Milan
2025-12-23€50MInter Milan
2026-05-29€50MInter Milan

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.425

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Joint 6th highest observed value among 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 98% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dimarco appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).