FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Piero Hincapié

Piero

Hincapié

CBEcuador · Arsenal FC

№ 659813World Class €60.8M −0.20

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

PieroHincapié

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Arsenal FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Ecuador
Age
24
Height
183 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hincapié at €50M. Model A, which never saw Hincapié during training, estimates €60.8M: the market value is 18% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €42.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.20A €60.8M▲ +0.16B €42.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
85
Minutes
6,585
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
71/85
Min / app
77
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hincapié…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50MModel A €60.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Piero Hincapié's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 60th, Minutes, two years 96th, Starts 52nd, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 85th67thGoals60thAssists96thMinutes52ndStarts84thRecent85thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,585 this player2,860 defender median96th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jan 2020
Peak
€50M
Mar 2025
Model target
€50M
Jun 2026
Valuations
20
3 club changes
Jun 2026€50MArsenal FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €50M, Arsenal FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-01-01€100kIndependiente del Valle
2020-07-01€400kIndependiente del Valle
2020-08-19€600kIndependiente del Valle
2021-02-08€700kCA Talleres
2021-06-11€5MCA Talleres
2021-07-16€8MCA Talleres
2021-12-22€13MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2022-03-24€17MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2022-06-09€17MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2022-09-21€22MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2022-11-09€22MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2022-12-23€25MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2023-06-22€35MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2023-12-14€35MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2024-05-29€40MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2024-12-20€40MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2025-03-27€50MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2025-06-05€50MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2025-12-09€50MArsenal FC
2026-06-03€50MArsenal FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.195

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 88% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 98% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hincapié appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).