FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Georges Mikautadze

Georges

Mikautadze

CFGeorgia · Villarreal CF

№ 729814World Class €40.5M −0.30

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

GeorgesMikautadze

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Villarreal CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Georgia
Age
25
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mikautadze at €30M. Model A, which never saw Mikautadze during training, estimates €40.5M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €36.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.30A €40.5M▼ −0.20B €36.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
89
Minutes
4,975
Goals
31
Assists
17
Started
52/89
Min / app
56
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mikautadze…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €40.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Georges Mikautadze's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 93rd, Assists per 90 91st, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 49th, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 85th93rdGoals91stAssists91stMinutes49thStarts94thRecent85thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,874 this player1,301 attacker median94th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2020
Peak
€30M
Oct 2025
Model target
€30M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
5 club changes
Jun 2026€30MVillarreal CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €30M, Villarreal CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-08-20€200kRFC Seraing
2020-10-21€1.2MRFC Seraing
2021-10-06€1.8MRFC Seraing
2022-01-06€2.5MRFC Seraing
2022-04-12€2.2MRFC Seraing
2022-10-28€3MFC Metz
2023-04-06€6MFC Metz
2023-06-16€10MFC Metz
2023-12-15€8MAjax Amsterdam
2024-03-19€9MFC Metz
2024-06-03€15MFC Metz
2024-07-18€20MOlympique Lyon
2024-12-10€18MOlympique Lyon
2025-03-24€20MOlympique Lyon
2025-06-03€22MOlympique Lyon
2025-10-02€30MVillarreal CF
2025-12-12€28MVillarreal CF
2026-06-05€30MVillarreal CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.300

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 91% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 92% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mikautadze appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).