FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Gavi

Gavi

CMSpain · FC Barcelona

№ 646740World Class €14.8M +0.71

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

Gavi

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Barcelona
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
21
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gavi at €30M. Model A, which never saw Gavi during training, estimates €14.8M: the market value is 103% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.71A €14.8M▲ +1.39B €7.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
55
Minutes
2,387
Goals
3
Assists
4
Started
28/55
Min / app
43
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gavi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €14.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Gavi's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 60th, Assists per 90 71st, Minutes, two years 45th, Starts 23rd, Minutes, last 365 days 20th, European club minutes 81st60thGoals71stAssists45thMinutes23rdStarts20thRecent81stEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

18% this player0% midfielder median81st percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25M
Oct 2021
Peak
€90M
Nov 2022
Model target
€30M
Jun 2026
Valuations
16
0 club changes
Jun 2026€30MFC BarcelonaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €30M, FC Barcelona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-10-13€25MFC Barcelona
2021-12-30€40MFC Barcelona
2022-03-21€60MFC Barcelona
2022-06-03€60MFC Barcelona
2022-09-23€70MFC Barcelona
2022-11-07€90MFC Barcelona
2023-06-13€90MFC Barcelona
2023-12-22€90MFC Barcelona
2024-06-07€90MFC Barcelona
2024-12-27€80MFC Barcelona
2025-03-21€70MFC Barcelona
2025-06-09€60MFC Barcelona
2025-10-02€40MFC Barcelona
2025-12-12€40MFC Barcelona
2026-03-16€30MFC Barcelona
2026-06-05€30MFC Barcelona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.710

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 91% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 93% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gavi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).