FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Víctor Muñoz

Víctor

Muñoz

LWSpain · CA Osasuna

№ 935231World Class €9.5M +1.15

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

VíctorMuñoz

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
CA Osasuna
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
22
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Muñoz at €30M. Model A, which never saw Muñoz during training, estimates €9.5M: the market value is 217% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.15A €9.5M▲ +1.85B €4.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
2,813
Goals
7
Assists
5
Started
31/40
Min / app
70
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Muñoz…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €9.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Víctor Muñoz's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 42nd, Assists per 90 55th, Minutes, two years 63rd, Starts 80th, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 57th42ndGoals55thAssists63rdMinutes80thStarts92ndRecent57thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,779 this player1,301 attacker median92nd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2023
Peak
€30M
Jun 2026
Model target
€30M
Jun 2026
Valuations
11
1 club change
Jun 2026€30MCA OsasunaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €30M, CA Osasuna. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-09-11€50kReal Madrid Castilla
2023-12-20€50kReal Madrid Castilla
2024-06-24€50kReal Madrid Castilla
2024-10-14€150kReal Madrid Castilla
2024-12-18€200kReal Madrid Castilla
2025-03-27€400kReal Madrid Castilla
2025-06-25€1MReal Madrid Castilla
2025-10-02€5MCA Osasuna
2025-12-12€10MCA Osasuna
2026-03-16€20MCA Osasuna
2026-06-05€30MCA Osasuna

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.154

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 91% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 92% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Muñoz appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).