FairValue

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Portrait of Jarrod Bowen

Jarrod

Bowen

RWEngland · West Ham United

№ 314875World Class €46.2M −0.43

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JarrodBowen

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
West Ham United
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
29
Height
176 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bowen at €30M. Model A, which never saw Bowen during training, estimates €46.2M: the market value is 35% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.54. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €41.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.43A €46.2M▼ −0.32B €41.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
77
Minutes
6,929
Goals
25
Assists
22
Started
77/77
Min / app
90
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bowen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €46.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jarrod Bowen's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 62nd, Assists per 90 88th, Minutes, two years 99th, Starts 100th, Minutes, last 365 days 99th, European club minutes 28th62ndGoals88thAssists99thMinutes100thStarts99thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player59% attacker median100th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Feb 2017
Peak
€50M
Dec 2023
Model target
€30M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
1 club change
Jun 2026€30MWest Ham UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €30M, West Ham United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-02-20€250kHull City
2017-06-28€250kHull City
2017-09-18€750kHull City
2018-02-27€5MHull City
2018-09-24€5MHull City
2019-02-27€8MHull City
2019-06-28€10MHull City
2020-02-11€20MWest Ham United
2020-04-08€16MWest Ham United
2020-07-30€25MWest Ham United
2020-10-13€28MWest Ham United
2021-03-18€30MWest Ham United
2021-06-03€30MWest Ham United
2021-12-23€35MWest Ham United
2022-06-15€42MWest Ham United
2022-11-03€42MWest Ham United
2023-03-16€38MWest Ham United
2023-06-20€38MWest Ham United
2023-10-09€48MWest Ham United
2023-12-19€50MWest Ham United
2024-05-27€50MWest Ham United
2024-12-16€45MWest Ham United
2025-05-30€40MWest Ham United
2025-12-09€35MWest Ham United
2026-06-03€30MWest Ham United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.432

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 73% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 92% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bowen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).