FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Serhat

Öztaşdelen

GKTürkiye · Kocaelispor

№ 722650Emerging €597k 0.00

Player dossierSüper Lig

SerhatÖztaşdelen

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Kocaelispor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
21
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Öztaşdelen at €600k. Model A, which never saw Öztaşdelen during training, estimates €597k: the market value is level with that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.00. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €632k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ 0.00A €597k▼ −0.05B €632k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
7
Minutes
630
Started
7/7
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Öztaşdelen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €597k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Serhat Öztaşdelen's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 8th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 32nd8thMinutes62ndStarts26thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jun 2021
Peak
€600k
May 2026
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
13
1 club change
May 2026€600kKocaelisporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, Kocaelispor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-06-02€25kAltinordu FK
2021-10-22€50kAltinordu FK
2022-01-17€75kAltinordu FK
2022-06-10€100kAltinordu FK
2022-11-15€100kAltinordu FK
2023-04-03€100kAltinordu FK
2023-06-23€100kAltinordu FK
2023-12-29€100kAltinordu FK
2024-06-03€75kAltinordu FK
2025-01-03€200kAltinordu FK
2025-06-20€200kAltinordu FK
2025-12-17€200kKocaelispor
2026-05-21€600kKocaelispor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.005

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 23% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 32% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Öztaşdelen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).