FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Robby

McCrorie

GKScotland · Esbjerg fB

№ 244260Emerging €536k +0.11

Player dossierSuperliga

RobbyMcCrorie

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Esbjerg fB
League
Superliga
Nationality
Scotland
Age
28
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values McCrorie at €600k. Model A, which never saw McCrorie during training, estimates €536k: the market value is 12% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.11A €536k▼ −1.00B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
29
Minutes
2,479
Started
29/29
Min / app
85
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for McCrorie…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €536k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Robby McCrorie's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 46th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 15th, European club minutes 79th46thMinutes62ndStarts15thRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

15% this player0% goalkeeper median79th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2019
Peak
€600k
May 2026
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
13
4 club changes
May 2026€600kEsbjerg fBValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, Esbjerg fB. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-10-07€100kQueen of the South FC
2020-02-05€200kLivingston FC
2021-01-18€400kLivingston FC
2021-12-31€400kRangers FC
2022-06-27€400kRangers FC
2022-12-13€400kRangers FC
2023-06-26€400kRangers FC
2023-12-05€500kRangers FC
2024-05-30€500kRangers FC
2024-12-03€500kKilmarnock FC
2025-06-17€500kKilmarnock FC
2025-12-18€550kEsbjerg fB
2026-05-27€600kEsbjerg fB

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.112

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 34% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 32% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where McCrorie appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).