Egor
Smelov
AMRussia · FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
Player dossierPremier Liga
EgorSmelov
AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod
- League
- Premier Liga
- Nationality
- Russia
- Age
- 21
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 26 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Smelov at €750k. Model A, which never saw Smelov during training, estimates €847k: the market value is 11% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 27
- Minutes
- 1,629
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 21/27
- Min / app
- 60
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Smelov…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €750k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
78% this player69% midfielder median66th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Dec 2022
- Peak
- €750k
- Mar 2026
- Model target
- €750k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 1 club change
May 2026: €750k, FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-02 | €25k | Dynamo 2 Moscow |
| 2023-06-26 | €25k | Dynamo 2 Moscow |
| 2023-10-05 | €100k | Dynamo 2 Moscow |
| 2023-11-20 | €100k | Dynamo 2 Moscow |
| 2024-06-04 | €100k | Dynamo 2 Moscow |
| 2024-11-22 | €150k | Dynamo 2 Moscow |
| 2025-03-19 | €300k | Dynamo 2 Moscow |
| 2025-06-04 | €300k | Dynamo 2 Moscow |
| 2025-09-18 | €350k | FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod |
| 2025-12-16 | €400k | FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod |
| 2026-03-25 | €750k | FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod |
| 2026-05-26 | €750k | FC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.122
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier Liga412 players · median €1M
Valued above 29% of the 412 Premier Liga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 26% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Smelov appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- RahmanovicAMKrylya Sovetov Samara · Premier Liga€750k
- ChistyakovCBFC Rostov · Premier Liga€750k
- MedvedevGKFC Pari Nizhniy Novgorod · Premier Liga€750k
- CivicLBBaltika Kaliningrad · Premier Liga€750k
- AndjusicAMZorya Lugansk · midfielders€750k
- AzziLMAC Monza · midfielders€750k
- SowahCMNAC Breda · midfielders€750k
- BrouwerAMSC Telstar · midfielders€750k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).