FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Bernardo

Schappo

CBBrazil · CF Estrela Amadora

№ 699679Emerging €858k −0.13

Player dossierLiga Portugal

BernardoSchappo

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
CF Estrela Amadora
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
27
Height
191 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Schappo at €750k. Model A, which never saw Schappo during training, estimates €858k: the market value is 13% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.13A €858k▼ −0.95B €1.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
2,055
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
24/26
Min / app
79
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Schappo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €750k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €750kModel A €858k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Bernardo Schappo's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 35th, Starts 77th, Minutes, last 365 days 64th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists35thMinutes77thStarts64thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player83% defender median77th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Aug 2022
Peak
€750k
Apr 2023
Model target
€750k
May 2026
Valuations
9
4 club changes
May 2026€750kCF Estrela AmadoraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €750k, CF Estrela Amadora. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-08-05€400kItuano Futebol Clube (SP)
2023-04-07€750kFortaleza Esporte Clube
2023-07-25€750kFortaleza Esporte Clube
2023-12-11€750kFortaleza Esporte Clube
2024-04-18€750kBotafogo FC
2024-11-27€650kBotafogo FC
2025-06-27€750kVila Nova Futebol Clube (GO)
2025-12-18€750kCF Estrela Amadora
2026-05-28€750kCF Estrela Amadora

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.135

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 35% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 28% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Schappo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).